M.Khazin, S. Gavrilenkov "Development and Interaction of the Global Projects"

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27.11.2004 05:11

Михаил Хазин

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The article contains a short analysis of interaction and historical sequence of the existing (and having existed) global projects. This article is a continuation of article "Reconfiguration of squaring the circle" by S. Gavrilenkov and M. Khazin. M.Khazin, S. Gavrilenkov "Development and Interaction of the Global Projects"
Authors: M.Khazin, S. Gavrilenkov

The term of the "global project" introduced in the previous article requires further decoding and detailing. So in this article we will look thoroughly into the mechanisms of GP’s interaction and their historical review, if it can be so called.
The competition of the projects, in the sense that was described above, can exist in three main directions that are independent and equal at most. And historic experience shows that if one of project has an obvious preference on two of the directions, than any advantage of the third direction does not practically ever play any role. These three directions are economy (derivative of which is military power), ideology and demography. We attribute to the last one not only the number of population but its devotion to the project values, to sacrifice oneself for them, in particular. So, difficulties of the "West" project in Iraq in many respects are connected with the fact that overwhelming superiority in economical sphere (and in military power) is quite compensated by advantage of Islam in ideology (as the "West" project built on the basis of primacy of gain is obviously inferior (in the eyes of people) to the "Islamic" project based on the justice, even specifically understood) and demography, practically in all aspects of it.
But famous opposition of the "two systems" in the middle of the XX century was connected with the fact that none of them had an evident advantage (notwithstanding of the ideological dogmas of them): in economy the "West" project had the priority, in ideology – the "Red" one; and a draw in demography on the whole. And the defeat of the "Red" project was caused by that in the end of 50-th the rotten management of the USSR rejected an ideological war, turning to the so called principle of "peaceful co-existence".
To continue description of GPs we will try to give sequence of the projects as we conceive it. It is clear that we understand that during the process of further researches and development of terminology of GPs this list will be altered and added. Within the framework of the written history the first one is the "Jewish" (Old Testament) global project. As it should be the first attempt was not good enough so this project turned out to be very complicated (especially in its rituals) that lead to very limited number of neophytes. Aside from it, one of the main dogmas, prohibition of usury (money-lending) was used only in relation to the representatives of this project. This situation, as we will see, further interfered much on the course of the world process.
But the system of values was so attractive that the "Christian" project appeared that after its transition to hierarchical stage should be called the "Byzantine" one. It should be mentioned that the main difference between the "Christian" and the "Jewish" projects is not in dogmas but in much simplified rituals and ceremonials. Apart from it, the prohibition of usury in the "Byzantine" project is more universal that lead to that even in the Middle Ages a considerable role in control of financial system played representatives of the "Jewish" project.

Part of the network system of the "Christian" project within the frameworks of competition with Byzantium (as a state) terminated its existence but in the long run one fragment turned to the separate "Catholic" project. In contrast to the "Byzantine" one that fast obtained imperial features, the "Catholic" project by virtue of political dissociation of the West Europe developed long within the frameworks of hierarchical stage. Not in the last turn, difference in culture and mentality of peoples of the area of the "Byzantine" and the "Catholic" projects interfered on the divergence of the projects.
We should examine the situation of the last 500 years in Europe separately and more detailed. In the XVI century after disastrous "gold" crisis happened after sharp drop of price for gold that played then (and the whole written history) the role of UMV (Unified Measure of Value) and further destruction of the feudal natural economy, in Europe a new "Capitalist" project began to develop the ideological basis of which was the Reformation. As for its doctrine this project moved away from ideological basis of biblical system of values having rejected the prohibition of usury as the economical basis of the "Capitalist" GP became interest (lending rate). The prohibition, of course, could not be cancelled in dogmas (and it was in full in thesis of Martin Luther, for example), but it was relieved in myth of so called "Protestant ethics". It should be mentioned that the "Capitalist" project changed radically the basic aim within the frameworks of project system of values. If in the "Christian" project in all its forms (even not global) the foundation was justice, then for the "Capitalist" project it is gain and self-interest.
It should be mentioned that this example shows that the biblical system of dogmas, which is basis for all GPs on the territory of Europe, is not just sum of prohibitions and restrictions but organic (interdependent) system of norms and rules that affects all aspects of life of people. Perhaps, that is the reason why this system of dogmas remained practically intact for so many centuries.
A mankind phenomenon – a so called technological society – is connected with this "Capitalist" project and interest rate. No state or civilization that do not approve interest rate (especially, Islamic one) can create on their own basis a technological society (with one exemption that we will describe below).
So far we have talked about the "Capitalist" and the "West" projects, but we have not showed the difference and what causes this difference. In our opinion nowadays the "Capitalist" project does not exist in is pure form as in the XIX century there were serious changes in its economic basis that considerably changed its base values. Namely the idea got more and more power, the idea born somewhere in the end of the XVIII century, the idea of realization of the alchemists’ dream of creating gold in a retort. The reason why it was gold chosen to be created by alchemists is clear – gold was then UMV (Unified Measure of Value) for the whole mankind. And the idea which the financial capitalism and further a new global project - the "West" one, developed into, was that if it was impossible to make gold then it could be possible to change the UMV that could be created in a "retort" and that "retort" should be controlled and protected from outsiders.

Not getting into details, it can be said that the UMV of today is US Dollar; the only "retort" where it is created is Federal Reserve System of the USA, a private company the owners of which are the largest investing banks of Wall Street. And the world financial system with its institutes as the IMF, the World Bank and many others see their main mission as conservation of the monopoly of US FRS for monetary emission.
The change of the name from the "Capitalist" to the "West" project was connected not with the move of the project elite overseas but with the fact that for the first time in human history within the frameworks of this new economic formation the main wealth began to be created not by production of something or for the account of natural rent but through unlimited multiplication of pure financial assets. This model lead to the situation when the share of financial assets in the XIX century was less than half of all the assets of the mankind, nowadays their share is more than 99%. Only amount of oil futures (for example) is hundreds and thousands times high than the real extractive oil value. And the absence of prohibition for interest rate helped a lot to formation of this project that developed in the XIX-XX centuries.
Its main stages were establishment of the first private central bank (with sole right to monetary emission) in Great Britain in the middle of the XIX century, creation of US FRS in the beginning of the XX century, Bretton Woods agreement of 1944, cancellation of fixation of US dollar to gold in 1973 and, at last, the collapse of the "Red" project in 1991.
It should be mentioned that this way of formation of the assets "at the tip of the printing-press" under conditions of the existing technological civilization allowed to create a phenomenon of "overconsumption" when development of consumer credit let to considerably increase living standards for large part of population within the limits of the "West" project. At the same time this substantially decreased the wish to fight for realization of project values as this fight would inevitably lower the living standards. As a result, one of the three main directions of inter-project opposition, the demographic one, turned out to be lost for the "West" project" forever.
Aside from it, this alteration of the main mode of production could not change seriously the psychology of project elite but greatly narrowed it: in fact nowadays the main project decisions are made by small group not more than scores of people.
We should mention that after the collapse of the "Red" project in the beginning of the 90-th of the last century this paucity of the elite and absence (for the very short period of time indeed) of the real enemies of the project scale lead to fast transition of the "West" project to the imperial stage. It should be mentioned that as it was expected the very first economic difficulties caused problems to imperial structure. Today it is clear that management of the EU, Germany and France first of all, and management of the USA (in the person of George Bush junior) seriously consider the possibility of the controlled by them structures to exit from the "West" project and creation of supranational (in the first case) and national (in the second case) imperia - with return to "old" not even capitalist but catholic values.

Whether one of this attempts comes to success we are to know but the one thing is clear - the sharp rise of number of terrorist acts last years is tightly connected with this crisis of the ’West" project and is an attempt of the splitted elite to move the scale to their profit.
Outside Europe in the VII century another project based on the biblical values appeared – "Islamic" one. It developed actively within the frameworks of the hierarchical stage for near 1000 years but turn to imperial stage within the frameworks of the Osman Imperia practically brought to freeze of the "Islamic" project and its transition to latent phase. And only in the XX century the attempts of the "West" and the "Red" projects to play the "Islamic card" in their interest lead to the renaissance of the "Islamic" project in a new redaction that has a network structure now. An important factor of reviving of the "Islamic" global project became a demographic process: the population of the Islamic countries increased rapidly.
The main feature of the "Islamic" project is its powerful ideological component. That is connected with the fact that norms and rules of living included in its dogmas turn practically any project representative into active preacher. That substantially distinguishes this GP from all other projects, such activity in which was inherent only at the very beginning.
It should be mentioned that in Asia there were its own global projects that did not come to Europe, or rather did not gain much followers, for example the "Buddhist" project. We will not look it into details because it is not an urgent question for us. But with one exception - China.
Now China is standing at the crossroads: the choice is between the way of further progress connected with "hosting" a fallen flag of the "Red" project that means move on international project way or the way of the national imperia that won’t be disturbed with world processes that do not touch national interests of the ethnic Chinese and their vassals. Much testifies for the fact that communism in its classical form is not an aim of China. In particular, communism regards money-lending as negative but China adapts in full capitalist tools while the communist symbols is used as anti-hunt for transforming systems.
But we should return to our historic review. In the XVIII century practically at the same time with appearance of idea of financial capitalism in the works of socialists-utopists another idea appeared that became the basis for the "Red" project. From the point of view of biblical dogmas this project became an attempt to return the prohibition for money-lending (in form of socialization of means of production), but ideology and technology if this project had one main feature (in comparison with the previous projects) – a serious shift to social sphere, substantial progress of social technologies.

The weak spot of the "Red" project is total absence of a mystic component. For some time by contrast with the "Capitalist" and the "West" projects it was not so noticeably, but while these projects alternative to the "Red" one were adopting the mentioned social technologies this drawback began to play more and more role. The "Red" project that developed in the USSR (if I may say so) in rather severe "communist" form lost the game (including the reasons mentioned above) but did not disappear once and for all, but turned to the latent form. Sharp fall of living standards in base countries of the "West" project after the inescapable and close global economic crisis will inevitably cause vigorous renaissance of the socialistic ideas. Apart from it, due to the problem with US dollar as UMV the mankind is most likely to be forced to consider seriously the possibility of return of the biblical dogma that prohibits usury.
Now it’s time to recall the phenomenon of "technological civilization". The main problem of the "Islamic" project, that is so eager to gain control over Europe and is seeking for a base country for transit to the hierarchal stage, is total impossibility to build on its own base modern technological structure. And it is obvious that the experience of the "Capitalist" and the "West" projects can not be used as in the "Islamic" project interest rate is strictly forbidden. But the only case in the history when a technological society was built without use of interest rate was the USSR, the base country of the "Red" project. Because of it we can not exclude the possibility that penetration of Islam into Europe will have substantial socialistic traces that inevitably will correlate with raising of the same mood on the conditions of the severe economic crisis.
A logical question arises: what about Russia? Russia used to be a project country. In fact she never existed in any other kind. By virtue of her size and resources Russia is able to formulate her interests only if she is the core of a global project. In essence in all her forms – Kiev Russia and the Russian Imperia (in fact it was the "Byzantine" global project that lasted in other place and in other time), the USSR – they were position variants of the same bundle of civilization notions. Otherwise her fate is poor – it’s impossible to postulate expediency of living on such a large territory of such small population. The population that in its turn does not have clear aims of its existence will ruin itself with drink or will look closely at real forces proposing substantial programs.
While Russia "flirts" with the West following to her emotional mood of her elite grown up in hypnotic delight with les Champs-Elysees, Piccadilly and Manhattan, political class of Russia notwithstanding the fact that after collapse of communism passed enough time tried not to make a final decision stuck between soviet fortress and legal state. It makes easier to rule, it gives free space for maneuver and manipulation. And economical elite of Russia simply belong to the "West" global project and in this sense to expect something positive from them is quite nave.

But just this, in some sense, helpless situation may cause some unexpected events.
There is no Russia in the "West" project. But she is in the "Islamic" project. As a rule, in answer on such supposition there are skeptical cries meaning: never, why and so on. The answer is simple.
Today Russia is an ideological desert. She does not have any myth. Standing with candles on Christmas and presence of Orthodox clergy on conferences and official meetings change and add nothing. Islam does not have any myth too and it’s the weakest point of it. As we have already noticed, the distinctive feature of Moslem religion is that its fundamental books content not only dogmas but rules and norms (with equal rights to dogmas), including ones concerning power. However there are clear signs that Islam thoughtfully works at politics and its myth. Russia never lived striving for profit and gain that is so natural for the West. And so did Islam. In Russia such idea as justice is still alive inherited from socialism and the "Red" project. Traditional Islamic countries do not have flair and inclination to technologies and war games. A Slavic family has one child, an Islamic one – four, and it’s demography. Do you think if there is a space to build a project? The communist project was surrendered at discretion but not died. Finally, no one has proved that it is less effective than free market that does not longer exist in the West. Neither the "Capitalist" nor the "West" projects could achieve the same growing rate that the "Red" project showed in the USSR in 30-50 years of the XX century (even taking into account the terrible war). And if "reincarnation" of the "Red" project, perhaps in socialistic form, will get a mystical component, for example in the form of political Islamic myth, restart of it is very likely to happen.
This situation will become an important and topical in case of collapse of the world system of division of labor in connection with substantial drop of US dollar. It is very hard to draw an analogy. The XVI is too far and after it there was no economic crisis of the same scale with considerable change of UMV.

September 15, 2004
(written on 09.20.2004, published (in Russian) on 09.20.2004) перевод: О.Быкова


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