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Excellent Explanation of World Economic Crisis By Top Russian Statist Economist (Khazin)

Экономика

03.09.2016 01:56  

Михаил Хазин

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The author is a leading Russian economist, publicist, and TV and radio host (Wikipedia - Russian only), an 'economic nationalist', like Sergei Glazyev - critical of liberal, globalist policies.  

In Russian they are known as 'Gosudarstveniki', which translates roughly to 'Statists'.  See this excellent article from August 2016, describing their rising influence in Russia.

Sometimes referred to as the "Russian Paul Krugman", he writes prolifically, and has a very large audience in Russia.  His articles3 typically receive hundreds of thousands of views.  He is known for explaining complex economic ideas in clear terms non-specialists can understand.  

He is a former senior economist in the presidential administration and a frequent speaker at international conferences.

"The upcoming election presents Americans a choice between these scenarios.  If you want to support the bankers, choose Clinton. If you want to save your country’s economy, support Trump. 

In either case, recession is inevitable, but with Clinton it will be deeper and more painful to everyday citizens."

Mikhail Khazin


As yet, no one has given a clear answer to a question of some interest: What is the origin of the current global economic crisis?

Here's my answer, short version.

In 1944, the Bretton-Woods agreements were put into effect. Economically they served to widen dollar circulation. Under these agreements, such international bodies as the WTO (at the time GATT), IMF and World Bank were created, but the role of international currency was given to the dollar, and currency regulation remained under US national jurisdiction – namely, with the Fed.

At that time the US economy constituted more than 50% of the world economy, and the basic flaw of the Bretton-Woods system – that the Fed must concern itself with both the US economy and the world economy – was pretty much irrelevant. What’s more, dollar circulation still had space to grow.

Today, however, the situation has changed radically.

The US economy is now less than 20% of the world economy, yet the dollar zone still accounts for the whole world, and, it has no space to grow any more after the former USSR joined the dollar zone in the 90s.  One problem is that the international financial system was created assuming permanent growth and constant demands for more money, which were to be provided by the Fed.

There being literally no place for dollar spending outside of the global dollar zone any more, dollars eventually return to the USA, thus creating very unpleasant problems for the US economy.  To put it simply, this leads to price rises. To counteract this, in 2014 President Obama wisely stopped printing dollars, against stiff opposition.  (History will show that this was a brilliant decision)

Bankers have understood this dilemma since it first appeared. In 2011 they tried to resolve it by terminating the initial Bretton-Woods system, by creating a new global currency under new IMF-based governance. This did not succeed.  Again, this is great for the US, (well-done again Obama), but a disaster for bankers, for they cannot live without more and more money being created, which must be provided by the USA, because there is no one else who can do it.

Thus, the current economic crisis is because the bankers “overheated” the world economy, stimulating household demand, financed by money they received from the USA.  If this river of new money were halted, the world economy would plunge (it is already plunging!), but it would survive after the downturn.  The alternative, to keep the world economy going with current money-printing policies, will keep things going for a while, but will eventually fail, with the US economy going down first, and the rest of the world after it.  

There is no way to completely avoid economic crisis. The world economy must shrink to its normal equilibrium state, where household earnings are balanced with spending. However, this inevitable plunge may take two different courses. Either it is the real sector and households which will be rescued, or preferential treatment will be given to the bankers, bailed out (again) by US taxpayers.

The upcoming election presents Americans a choice between these scenarios.  If you want to support the bankers, choose Clinton. If you want to save your country’s economy, support Trump. In either case, recession is inevitable, but with Clinton it will be deeper and more painful to everyday citizens.

With Trump, the recession will be shallower and more painful to bankers.

It is as simple as that.

Let me conclude by explaining why no one is publicly discussing the origin of the current crisis.

Over the last decades it is the bankers who have controlled the bulk of world money. As the saying goes, he who pays gets to call the tune. The bankers do not want people to understand that it is the everyday citizen who must pay for their (bankers’) comfortable lives. Consequently they block public dissemination of research to that effect through their hammerlock on economics departments in the leading universities.

Quite simple, really.


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